A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
